This study is the third investigation in 2015 that aims to track the schooling trends of new immigrant children from Grade 6 to Grade 7 and to analyze the influence of students’ study performance in elementary school on their Grade 7 mathematics performance. This study was conducted for 5 months, confirming the number of measurable subjects studying in Taiwan North area for Grade 7 was 809, excluding the homeschooled students and any with learning disorders; the number of subjects who actually answered the questionnaire was 777 (96.04%) with an average age of 13.38 years old. The research tool used was the questionnaire for students, including 24 questions for self-assessment of students’ confidence in mathematical study and 80 questions relating to study factors. The 24 questions for confidence in mathematical study were designed based on PISA questions regarding the topics of “Number and Quantity“ and “Algebra“ in Grade 7 mathematics; the Cronbach’s alpha values were 0.88 and 0.97, respectively. The 80 questions relating to study factors were designed based on Expectancy-Value Theory, and the Cronbach’s alpha values were between 0.72 and 0.92. The mathematics literacy of the students in 2012 and 2014 was estimated using the Rasch model and fixed common item parameter calibration. The influence strength was assessed using the structural regression model. Acer ConQuest 4 and Mplus 7.11 software was adopted during the process. The study showed that the number of schools attended by the tracked samples increased from 43 elementary schools to 120 public and private high schools, with a tracking rate of 92.14% in the third investigation (the attrition rate was 7.86%). The students with better mathematics performance in Grade 6 showed the strongest confidence in the spoken language type problems of the “Number and Quantity Topic“ and the written symbols type problems of the “Algebra Topic,“ both designed for Grade 7 students. Based on the study results, this project provides suggestions for mathematics education and future research.
